How Many Deaths Can Statistically Be Attributed to Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Injections? An Analysis of German Health Data from 2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56098/s9cjk650Keywords:
all-cause mortality, autopsy, adverse event, severe adverse eventAbstract
While the efficacies of the newly developed mRNA and vector vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been widely advertised, their harm-to-benefit ratio remains almost completely ignored, though reports of possible “side effects” (some of them lethal) keep piling up. The most severe of those adverse events is sudden death. Until now, to the best of our knowledge, in Germany at least reliable estimates of how many deaths may actually have been caused by SARS-CoV-2 vaccination are still missing. Here, we fill this void and provide such an estimate for Germany during the course of 2021. Thereto, the number of deaths reported by the Paul-Ehrlich-Institut to have occurred within the group of persons suspectedly affected by a vaccine-induced adverse event is scaled by the factor of under-reporting, based on health insurance reports, and finally corrected by known all-cause mortality. Our best estimate for the year 2021 is that 16,817 deaths were caused by SARS-CoV-2 vaccination within the short-term observation period of 50 days after the last injection of a vaccine. Taking independent autopsy reports into account, the estimate of 11,194 deaths is a lower bound. Our hope is that this report may serve as a pivot for further investigations of the questions addressed here.
References
Ausic, S. (2022). Das Paradoxon der Impftoten — Pathologe Arne Burkhardt über Impftreibjagd [The paradox of those diseased by vaccination — pathologist Arne Burkhardt on vaccination hunts]. The Epoch Times. https://www.epochtimes.de/wissen/forschung/das-paradoxon-der-impftoten-pathologe-ueber-impftreibjagd-a3813435.html
Baden, L. R., El Sahly, H. M., Essink, B., Kotloff, K., Frey, S., Novak, R., . . . Zaks, T. (2021). Efficacy and safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. New England Journal of Medicine, 384 (5), 403-416. https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389
Baethge, C., & Schmedt, M. (2021). Heidelberger Pathologe pocht auf mehr Obduktionen von Geimpften [Pathologist from Heidelberg insists on more autopsies of vaccinated people]. Deutsches Ärzteblatt. In German: https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/126061/Heidelberger-Pathologe-pocht-auf-mehr-Obduktionen-von-Geimpften
Bardosh, K., Krug, A., Jamrozik, E., Lemmens, T., Keshavjee, S., Prasad, V., . . . Høeg, T. B. (2022). COVID-19 vaccine boosters for young adults: a risk benefit assessment and ethical analysis of mandate policies at universities. Journal of Medical Ethics. https://jme.bmj.com/content/early/2022/12/05/jme-2022-108449
Behles, C., Lütkehermölle, W., Volz-Zang, C., & Weisser, K. (2017, Ausgabe 1 | März). Bulletin zur Arzneimittelsicherheit – Informationen aus BfArM und PEI. Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. In German: https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/newsroom/bulletin-arzneimittelsicherheit/2017/1-2017.pdf
BMC Infectious Diseases Editorial Office. (2023). Skidmore, M. Retraction Note: The role of social circle COVID-19 illness and vaccination experiences in COVID-19 vaccination decisions: an online survey of the United States population. BMC Infectious Diseases, 23 (1), 223. https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-023-08234-8
Buda, S., Streib, V., Preuß, U., Dürrwald, R., Biere, B., Schilling, J., Buchholz, U., an der Heiden, M., & Haas, W. (2019). Bericht zur Epidemiologie der Influenza in Deutschland Saison 2018/19 [Report on the epidemiology of influenza in Germany, season 2018/19]. Robert-Koch-Institut: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Influenza. In German: https://influenza.rki.de/saisonberichte/2018.pdf
Burkhardt, A. (2022). Pathologie der Impftoten und Impfschäden: Nach der Evidenz erste Beweise [Pathology of deaths by and damages from vaccination: proofs beyond first evidence]. Institut Prof. Dr. Burkhardt: Pathologie Konferenz, 11.03.2022. In German: https://www.pathologie-konferenz.de/
Cichutek., K. (2021). Sicherheitsbericht – Verdachtsfälle von Nebenwirkungen und Impfkomplikationen nach Impfung. zum Schutz vor COVID-19 seit Beginn der Impfkampagne am 27.12.2020 bis zum 31.12.2021 [Safety report – Suspected cases of adverse events and complications after vaccination to prevent COVID-19 since start of vaccination campaign on 27.12.2020 through 31.12.2021]. Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. In German: https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/newsroom/dossiers/sicherheitsberichte/sicherheitsbericht-27-12-20-bis-31-12-21.pdf
Cichutek., K. (2022). Sicherheitsbericht – Verdachtsfälle von Nebenwirkungen und Impfkomplikationen nach Impfung zum Schutz vor COVID-19 seit Beginn der Impfkampagne am 27.12.2020 bis zum 30.06.2022 [Safety report – Suspected cases of adverse events and complications after vaccination to prevent COVID-19 since start of vaccination campaign on 27.12.2020 through 30.06.2022]. Paul-Ehrlich-Institut. In German: https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/newsroom/dossiers/sicherheitsberichte/sicherheitsbericht-27-12-20-bis-30-06-22.pdf
Fraiman, J., Erviti, J., Jones, M., Greenland, S., Whelan, P., Kaplan, R. M., & Doshi, P. (2022). Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults. Vaccine, 40 (40), 5798-5805. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X22010283?via%3Dihub
Gassen, A. (2022). Impfstoffe gegen COVID-19: Vergleich Anzahl der Impfungen mit Anzahl der codierten Impfnebenwirkungen 2016-2021 [Comparison of the numbers of vaccine injections and ICD-coded vaccine-associated AEs] – Anfrage [Request by] MdB Martin Sichert (AfD) im Gesundheitsausschuss des Bundestages [acting as a Member of the permanent Parliamentary Committee of Health] am 21. März 2022 [March 21, 2022], Antwort vom 21.06.2022 [reply June 21, 2022], Kassenärztliche Bundesvereinigung (KBV). In German: see supplementary material [SM1].
Gude, J., Burg, F., & Brand, R. (2022a). Alterspyramide (berechnet) [Age pyramid (calculated)]. Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis). In German: https://service.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/
Gude, J., Burg, F., & Brand, R. (2022b). Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen, Geschlecht und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016-2022 [Fatalities – Daily, weekly, monthly numbers, age- and sex-stratified in the Federal States in 2016-2022]. Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis). In German: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Sterbefaelle-Lebenserwartung/Tabellen/sonderauswertung-sterbefaelle.html
Hazell, L. & Shakir, S. A. W. (2006). Under-reporting of adverse drug reactions. Drug Safety, 29 (5), 385-396. https://link.springer.com/article/10.2165/00002018-200629050-00003
Kim, M-J., Jung, H.O., Kim, H., Bae, Y., Lee, S. Y., & Jeon, D.S. (2023). 10-year survival outcome after clinically suspected acute myocarditis in adults: A nationwide study in the pre-COVID-19 era. PLoS One, 18 (1), e0281296. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281296
Logunov, D. Y., Dolzhikova, I. V., Shcheblyakov, D. V., Tukhvatulin, A. I., Zubkova, O. V., Dzharullaeva, A. S., . . . Gintsburg, A. L. (2021). Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia. The Lancet, 397 (10275), 671-681. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00234-8/fulltext
Mörl, F., Günther, M., & Rockenfeller, R. (2022). Is the harm-to-benefit ratio a key criterion in vaccine approval? Frontiers in Medicine, 9, 879120. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2022.879120
Orient, J. M. (2022). Negative evidence: postmortem examinations of post-COVID-19 vaccine fatalities. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, 27 (2), 35-41. https://jpands.org/vol27no2/orient.pdf
Perez, J-C., Moret-Chalmin, C., & Montagnier, L. (2023). Emergence of a New Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease: 26 Cases of the Human Version of Mad-Cow Disease, Days After a COVID-19 Injection. IJVTPR, 3, 727-770. https://ijvtpr.com/index.php/IJVTPR/article/view/66
Polack, F. P., Thomas, S. J., Kitchin, N., Absalon, J., Gurtman, A., Lockhart, S., . . . Gruber, W. C. (2020). Safety and efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine. New England Journal of Medicine, 383 (27), 2603-2615. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
Rockenfeller, R., Günther, M., & Mörl, F. (2023). Reports of deaths are an exaggeration: all-cause and NAA-test-conditional mortality in Germany during the SARS-CoV-2 era. Royal Society Open Science, 10 (8), 221551. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.221551
Sadoff, J., Gray, G., Vandebosch, A., Cárdenas, V., Shukarev, G., Grinsztejn, B., . . . Douoguih, M. 2021). Safety and efficacy of single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine against Covid-19. New England Journal of Medicine, 384 23), 2187-2201. (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101544
Schöfbeck, A. (2022a). Codierte Impfnebenwirkungen nach Corona-Impfung – Vergleich Kassendaten zu Werten des Paul-Ehrlich-Instituts [ICD-coded (U12.9G) adverse events after Corona vaccination – Comparison of health insurance data with values given by the Paul-Ehrlich-Institut]. BKK ProVita. In German: see supplementary material [SM2].
Schöfbeck, A. (2022b). Heftiges Warnsignal bei codierten Impfnebenwirkungen nach Corona Impfung [Heavy safety signal in ICD-coded adverse events after Corona vaccination (letter to the head of Paul-Ehrlich-Institut, Prof. Dr. Klaus Cichutek, 2022/02/21)]. BKK ProVita. In German: see supplementary material [SM3].
Schwab, C., Domke, L. M., Hartmann, L., Stenzinger, A., Longerich, T., & Schirmacher, P. (2023). Autopsy-based histopathological characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination. Clinical Research in Cardiology, 112 (3), 431-440. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5
Skidmore, M. (2023a). RETRACTED ARTICLE: The role of social circle COVID-19 illness and vaccination experiences in COVID-19 vaccination decisions: an online survey of the United States population. BMC Infectious Diseases, 23, 51. https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-023-07998-3
Skidmore, M. (2023b). COVID-19 illness and vaccination experiences in social circles affect COVID-19 vaccination decisions. Science, Public Health Policy, and the Law, 4, 208-226. https://www.publichealthpolicyjournal.com/_files/ugd/adf864_4c3afc4436234a96aa1f60bb6e677719.pdf
Tuuminen, T., Suominen, P. J., Gulbrandsen, T. A. (2023). A Finnish Survey of Adverse Effects of COVID-19 Injectables and the Functionality of the Medical System. IJVTPR, 3, 1009-1026. https://ijvtpr.com/index.php/IJVTPR/article/view/88/232
Vaccines Editorial Office. (2021). Retraction: Walach et al. The safety of COVID-19 vaccinations—we should rethink the policy. Vaccines 2021, 9, 693. Vaccines, 9 (7), 729. https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/729
Voysey, M., Clemens, S. A. C., Madhi, S. A., Weckx, L. Y., Folegatti, P. M., Aley, P. K., . . . Pollard, A. J. (2021). Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK. The Lancet, 397 (10269), 99-111. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32661-1
Walach, H., Klement, R., & Aukema, W. (2022). The risk-benefit ratio of Covid-19 vaccines: Publication policy by retraction does nothing to improve it. Clinical and Translational Discovery, 2 (1), e35. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ctd2.35
Walach, H., Klement, R. J., & Aukema, W. (2021a). The safety of COVID-19 vaccinations—should we rethink the policy? Science, Public Health Policy, and the Law, 3, 87-99. https://www.publichealthpolicyjournal.com/_files/ugd/adf864_8c97b2396c2842b3b05975bfbd8254cb.pdf
Walach, H., Klement, R. J., & Aukema, W. (2021b). The safety of COVID-19 vaccinations—we should rethink the policy. Vaccines, 9 (7), 693. [RETRACTED] https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/693
Wenchel, R. & Wieler, L. (2022a). Wöchentlicher Lagebericht des RKI zur Coronavirus-Krankheit-2019 (COVID-19): 06.01.2022 – aktualisierter Stand für Deutschland [Weekly situation report of the RKI on the Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19); 06.01.2022 – update Germany]. Robert-Koch-Institut. https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2022-01-06.pdf
Wenchel, R. & Wieler, L. (2022b). Wöchentlicher Lagebericht des RKI zur Coronavirus-Krankheit-2019 (COVID-19): 30.06.2022 – aktualisierter Stand für Deutschland [Weekly situation report of the RKI on the Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19); 30.06.2022 – update Germany]. Robert-Koch-Institut. In German: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2022-06-30.pdf
Yeadon, M., Latypova, A., Paardekooper, C., Wagner, W., & Rose, J. (2023). Batch codes and associated deaths, disabilities and illnesses for Covid-19 vaccines. How Bad is My Batch? https://www.howbadismybatch.com/background.html
Ziemann, M. & Görg, S. (2021). Inability to work after Corona vaccination in medical staff. Deutsches Ärzteblatt, 118 (17), 298-299. https://www.aerzteblatt.de/int/archive/article/218686
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Falk Mörl, Michael Günther, Robert Rockenfeller
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The copyright for materials in this journal, IJVTPR, is owned by the author. The author, however, grants first right of publication to the journal, IJVTPR and assures the editorial staff of the journal that the work submitted has not simultaneously been submitted to any other journal, nor is it under consideration for publication by any other journal. If any portion of the work submitted has appeared elsewhere, the quoted material is properly cited and credit is given to the original publisher. The submitting author (or the principal and corresponding author of the work) also assures the editors of IJVTPR that he or she has obtained all required written permissions from any quoted authors or publishers of quoted materials. The submitting author also agrees to hold IJVTPR and its editorial staff harmless from any infractions of copyright law that may be discovered at any time in the future in the submitted work. The author assures the editorial staff at IJVTPR that none of the work submitted is plagiarized, and that any recycled or precycled material by the author is identified as such with proper credits in the text to any other parties holding a copyright interest in the quoted material.